The Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict: Analysing Mediation Diplomacy

Executive Summary

The Foreign Ministry of Turkey recently announced the agreement to maintain the ceasefire between Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan, following the earlier peace talks in Doha, Qatar. While the parties are yet to finalise a mechanism to ensure a long-term ceasefire between the two parties in conflict, Ankara’s latest statement emphasises the continuity of talks held in Istanbul. The conflict started earlier this month following the airstrikes in several provinces in Afghanistan by Pakistan against the terror group named Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad has accused the Taliban government of giving shelter to TTP, which is accused of waging war against the state of Pakistan. However, the Taliban rejects this claim, accusing Pakistan of violating Afghanistan’s sovereignty and attacking its innocent civilians. The Taliban have reaffirmed that the TTP is Pakistan’s internal issue, and they remain dedicated to preventing any attacks from coming from Afghan territory. In the efforts to mediate, it is notable that while Doha has consistently been a mediator, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which signed a mutual defence pact with Pakistan, has been absent in the ceasefire negotiations.

Key Points

• The conflict mediation between Pakistan and Afghanistan had two mediators in Qatar and Turkey
• Notably, the mediation has had little to no evident contributions from the major powers of the United States, China, and Russia
• Even as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025, the kingdom has had no direct mediation role between the conflicting parties

Analysis

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was founded in 2007 as an umbrella organisation of various Sunni Islamist groups with the aim of overthrowing the government in Islamabad to establish an emirate based on Islamic law, an ideology closely aligned to the Taliban. With the Taliban’s renewed grip over Afghanistan, Pakistan’s influence over them has waned. As a result, together with the neglect of Afghanistan by the West, Qatar’s role and importance has risen, which has long served as the main bridge between the Taliban and the rest of the world and on whose soil the Doha agreement of 2020 was signed. Its long-standing influence also enables it to seat both Islamabad and the Taliban at the same table. In this regard, it is notable that Pakistan did not prefer Saudi Arabia to partner with Qatar in the negotiations and is comfortable with Turkey, which has no prior record of mediating between the Taliban and non-Taliban parties.

While Pakistan enjoys a strong partnership with Turkey, whose relations cut across multiple domains, it reveals more about the nature of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the Taliban. In the Middle East, though both Saudi Arabia and Qatar see Afghanistan primarily as a security and humanitarian concern, their approaches toward the country differ. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has sought to become the bulwark of religious tolerance, and their pivot against radical terrorist ideologies is perceived to have contributed to undermining their influence in Afghanistan.

As a result, its role is limited to humanitarian assistance through various Islamic institutions. Ankara’s interests in Afghanistan, meanwhile, are spread across political, cultural, and economic domains, as it hosts a large Afghan diaspora and anti-Taliban forces in its country. It was one of the first countries to engage with the Taliban and call for its diplomatic recognition. Importantly, its experience hosting forces such as Hamas and being part of their negotiations has boosted its image as a mediator. The Taliban has also been eager to diversify partnerships beyond Qatar and Pakistan by reaching out to countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, at present, Turkey presents a trusted partner for one, and a valuable gateway to the outside world for the other.

Policy Implications

• The current ceasefire remains fragile, as the TTP has links across the border
• The present security crisis has exposed the need for Pakistan to find newer partners to manage its relationship with Afghanistan
• The crisis has enabled the Taliban to further diversify its relationship by engaging countries like Turkey
• For Turkey, this presents an opportunity to deepen its influence over Pakistan and Afghanistan and increase its foothold in the region of South Asia