Two Fronts, One Crisis – Pakistan’s Strategic Overstretch

Executive Summary

Recent clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have exposed yet another faultline in a volatile region. Ending in hundreds of casualties on both sides and a fragile ceasefire, the conflict was a litmus test of the various overlapping security partnerships and interests operational within the complex web of relations in the region. Pakistan’s nascent defence pact with Saudi Arabia came under immediate scrutiny while Afghanistan’s engagement with India fuelled the threat of a two-front war for Pakistan. Caught between the Durand Line and the Radcliffe Line is the Pakistani security apparatus that struggles to mitigate alternate threats from its hostile neighbours. Put together with the Baloch insurgency, Pakistan faces a crisis of strategic overstretch as external stakeholders like Qatar, Türkiye, US and China watch with anxiety. The future of South Asian security landscape will be determined by how these complex relations play out as tensions rise and nations draw closer to conflicts.

Key Points

• Afghanistan and Pakistan were involved in a series of violent clashes after Pakistan launched drone strikes on senior members of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Kabul on 09^th October 2025.
• Resultant series of retaliations led to hundreds of deaths on both sides of the border, making it the deadliest clash between the two nations.
• Initial Pakistani strikes coincided with Afghan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India.
• While a fragile ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Türkiye took effect,Pakistan now faces imminent threat on two fronts.

Analysis

Afghanistan and Pakistan have historically been reluctant allies. After the US invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan gave refuge to senior Taliban leadership, providing a launch-pad for their eventual resurgence. On the other hand, Pakistan was also aiding American efforts at rebuilding Afghanistan post-9/11, aligning them with the US-backed Afghan government. However, after US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the two nations have been involved in constant stand-offs owing to mutual distrust and shifting regional interests.

Afghanistan has been deepening diplomatic ties with China and India. The Chinese foreign minister has visited Afghanistan twice in 2025, while India and Afghanistan considerably elevated their diplomatic relations during FM Muttaqi’s visit to India last month. This changing regional dynamic is concerning for Islamabad as Pakistan now faces a two-front war.Between the Durand Line and the Radcliffe Line, Pakistani military and strategic capabilities are overstretched. This, combined with the escalating Baloch independence movement, poses serious security challenges to Islamabad. Its defence pact with Saudi Arabia, which says attack on one is attack on another, came under scrutiny during its recent clashes with Afghanistan. Saudi’s neutral urge for peace and dialogue to both sides did nothing to reaffirm the seriousness of the pact. Having incurred significant loss of life and infrastructure during its clash with India earlier this year, the latest Afghan assault adds to the military and strategic vulnerabilities of Pakistan as it grapples with enemies at the gate.

Policy Implications

• Pakistan should reassess the reliability and effect of its regional security partnerships like ones with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• Islamabad should solidify its defence and economic cooperation with Beijing while leveraging its cordial relations with President Trump to secure greater defence equipment, intelligence sharing and security guarantees from both China and US.
• India’s growing engagement with Afghanistan introduces new regional dynamics, suggesting the need for Islamabad to pursue diplomatic channels to avoid strategic isolation.
• External stakeholders like the US, China, Qatar and Türkiye should ensure open channels of dialogue and communication between Afghanistan and Pakistan to ensure that the volatile region does not slip into wider conflict and anarchy.