Executive Summary
As part of his East Asia visit, President Trump met with newly-elected prime minister Sanae Takaichi on the 28th of October in Tokyo. The summit marked Takaichi’s first foreign policy engagement, serving as an important test for her leadership both on the international and domestic fronts. More importantly, it constituted the first opportunity for Takaichi to secure tangible US commitments, a central element to her heavily pro-US political inclination. The meeting endowed Takaichi with a significant diplomatic success, as it saw the signing of an agreement on the trade of rare earths and critical minerals, as well as reaffirmed economic and defence cooperation. While the summit was carefully choreographed, it produced limited concrete and binding policy measures, suggesting that its principal purpose lay in reasserting alliance strength and diplomatic rapport.
Key Points
- In October 2025, Beijing expanded export controls on key rare-earth magnets and oxides, citing national security concerns. The new rules, effective from 8 November 2025, require licenses for exporting components or equipment made with Chinese REEs.
- The EU imports 98% of its rare-earth magnets from China, leaving clean-energy, automotive, and defense industries highly vulnerable.
- On October 30, China agreed to suspend its new REE export restrictions for one year, pending a US-China deal on tariff concessions and fentanyl trade, easing short-term pressure.
- Brussels has initiated emergency discussions under the ‘EU Critical Raw Materials Act’, exploring alternative suppliers (Australia, Canada, Namibia) and strategic stockpiles to mitigate the vulnerability.
Analysis
Prime minister Takaichi’s careful orchestration of her first meeting with President Trump reflected the strategic importance of the relationship. In engaging Trump, she pursued a personalised diplomatic approach based on former PM Shinzo Abe’s legacy, whose personal friendship with President Trump had contributed to the strengthening of the alliance. As symbolic gestures, Takaichi presented Trump with Abe’s golf putter and caps with a MAGA hat-style design featuring his slogan “Japan is back”. These gifts, appealing both to Trump’s sympathy towards Abe and his own political ideology, signal Japan’s intent to maintain a familiar and cooperative dynamic.
This relationship-based diplomacy was compounded by expressions of admiration for Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East, references to a Nobel Peace Prize nomination, and the description of the US-Japan partnership as the “greatest alliance in the world”. Takaichi’s strategy was effective at establishing rapport: the American president referred to her as a “great friend”, and the meeting concluded with the signing of several joint statements.
The most substantive outcome was the “Japan-United States Framework for Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing”. The agreement outlines plans for joint stockpiles, shared processing facilities and coordinated mapping of important mineral resources. It also establishes a “Japan-US Critical Minerals Supply Security Rapid Response Group”, tasked with coordinating the delivery of processed minerals and overall strengthening of the bilateral supply chain. Given the leaders’ outspoken hawkish stances vis-à-vis the PRC, the framework represents a strategic effort to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on Beijing’s processing capacity, which currently stands at 90% internationally.
On defence, the leaders reasserted their commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific and emphasised the importance of broader regional cooperation with partners such as South Korea, the Philippines, India and Australia. These statements showcase another layer of their intent to counterbalance China’s influence. Similarly, both leaders expressed their resolve to end the DPRK’s nuclear programme. Yet the summit offered few specific on new security initiatives, leaving the broader regional security architecture largely unchanged.
While the summit marked a positive start to the Japan-US partnership, it delivered greater domestic political benefit than dynamic foreign policy initiatives. Going forward, sustaining momentum will require the Japanese government to be proactive in its dialogue with the United States and push for comprehensive and substantive cooperation.
Policy Implications
- The summit did not produce concrete initiatives to enhance joint deterrence. Subsequent policy measures will be necessary to translate symbolic alliance statements into strategic defence policies.
- The leaders’ reiterated commitment to the DPRK’s complete denuclearisation contradicts South Korea’s president’s new END initiative based on dialogue. The Japanese government must be flexible and also consult with South Korea, the most vital partner in dealing with North Korea, to avoid an overly rigid, US-reliant strategy.
- Given Japan’s continued economic reliance on China, Takaichi’s deepening alignment with the United States must be accompanied by pragmatic engagement with China.