Executive Summary
On 28 June, 2026, the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) raided the Green Zone area of Baghdad, which hosts many state institutions, including ministries, government offices, and the US embassy. Authorities arrested more than 60 politicians, officials, and businessmen on charges of corruption and abuse of power, a tool often used in Iraq’s political landscape. The raid was part of Prime Minister ʻAlī al-Zaydī’s Dawn Crackdown campaign, whose agenda aims to recover public funds lost due to corruption and strengthen cooperation between state bodies. As a result of a wider crackdown on corruption, the authorities seized 86$ million earlier in June.
Key Points
- Counter-terrorism forces sealed off all entrances to the fortified government district named the Green Zone, screening everyone trying to leave while entering the houses and offices of those detained.
- The raids extended beyond Baghdad to other cities, such as al-Anbar and Erbil.
- Some of those arrested are affiliated with Shia parties that hold close ties to Iran.
- Sources speculate that the arrests are relevant to the testimony and earlier arrest of former Deputy Minister of Oil, ‘Adnān al-Jumaylī.
Analysis
A less integrated parastatal military organ within Iraq is the pro-Iran and pro-Shia Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), which assembled at the call of Ayatollah ʻAlī al-Sīstānī against the Islamic State back in 2014. The previous administration tried but failed to effectively integrate the PMF into the state. The Green Zone raids indicate the al-Zaydī administration’s deeper commitment to reducing the presence of the pro-Iran forces and closer alignment with the US and the West. Bypassing the unwritten invincibility and diplomatic immunity of the Green Zone shows that the government is willing to ignore previous standards. Accordingly, the prime minister announced 30 September as the deadline for all non-state forces to disarm. Factions of the PMF, such as the Katā’ib Ḥizb Allāh and the Ḥarakat al-Nujabā’, reacted hastily and refused to cooperate or hand over their weapons.
The raid comes at a crucial period for Iraqi economic security. The Development Road project comprises rail, motorway, and gas pipelines connecting southeastern Turkey with the port of Grand Fāw on the Gulf. If successful, the project could provide Iraq with an opportunity to reduce its reliance on the Gulf for commercial and logistical matters. As the plan nears the end of its first operational phase, the Iraqi government must prove to international investors that the state can secure the route and revenue streams from both military and financial perspectives. If the raids succeed in institutionalising a more widespread transparency and reducing corruption, Iraq signals to its trade partners that the risks of operating the lines are minimal. Therefore, the whole operation is also an attempt to centralise the Iraqi economy and commerce, thereby encouraging direct foreign investment.
Policy Implications
- In order to prevent an inter-Shia conflict, Prime Minister al-Zaydī must follow through on the judicial proceedings whilst emphasising the rule of law in Iraq. Failure to do so would indicate military and legislative weakness, creating room for further encroachment.
- The raid casts the political security of the state in a negative light. To minimise risks to investors in the Development Road, the administration should ensure that key facilities will be guarded by CTS forces.
- Given that military tension in the aftermath of the raid is high, upgrading and bolstering the electronic warfare and surveillance capabilities of CTS forces is crucial. Having the appropriate tools would enable monitoring militia movements without resorting to open battles in populated areas.
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