EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Roughly a week after drones were spotted and thwarted at the Leipzig-Halle airport, a major center of logistics for European and American militaries as well as arms deliveries to Ukraine, two more drones were spotted near the Mechernich Base near the city of Bonn. German media reported that the base was hosting equipment for Patriot missile batteries. Licenses to produce patriot missiles were initially promised to President Zelenskyy from President Trump but ultimately are still in limbo as to whether Ukraine will ever actually get permission to build them. Germany’s Bundeswehr has raised the alarm over the recent drone sightings stating that even though the country is not at war, it faces almost daily threats and attacks. The Bundeswehr echoed sentiments from European military analysts who believe this is part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign to intimidate Germany and German voters. Moscow vehemently denies its involvement in any of these attacks.
KEY POINTS
- The Bundeswehr warns these attacks could become regular occurrences and army bases and facilities should be guarded accordingly.
- These threats have been known for a while as even President Ursula Von der Leyen called for the construction of a European “drone wall” to counter these attacks after several suspicious drones were spotted in Belgium last year.
- The drone spottings have consistently occurred near airports or major logistics hubs for Western supplies to Ukraine.
- Given that this year Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian logistics hubs in occupied Eastern Ukraine and deep into Russian territories against Wildberries facilities, some believe this to be retaliation against the source of many of Ukraine’s army logistics.
ANALYSIS
Drone attacks are consistent with Russian aims to destabilize NATO cohesion, instill fear in voter’s minds, and weaken supply chain logistics for Ukraine. They also highlight two specific issues Europe should address moving forward. First, President Von Der Leyen’s calls for a “drone wall” to defend Europe should be taken more seriously. Not only would they be better equipped to strike down incoming adversarial drones, but they also significantly boost Europe’s ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities to see these attacks coming from miles away. Second, strengthen the partnership with Ukraine in constructing layered active air defense strategies. These sensors are designed to detect high, medium, and low altitude flying objects concurrently so as to better operate within the range drones fly into compared to the high altitude of crewed aircraft and long-range missiles that European air defenses were better equipped for.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
In order to more effectively counter recurring drone intrusions there are several steps the EU should take. First, EU countries should strengthen their partnership with Ukraine’s intelligence services to better target incoming attacks and strengthen early warning capabilities. This intelligence collaboration could also be beneficial to identifying pro-Russian sleeper cells within European countries from which many subversive operations onto the continent from the Russian state originate from. Second, EU countries should develop plans to materialize President Von der Leyen’s plans for a “drone wall.” In this case, the focus would be more on counter-UAV technology aimed at identifying low-flying objects better and targeting them more precisely. This would include greater engagement and investments for Europe’s budding drone industry. Countries like Estonia, who are regional leaders in integrating AI software and cyberwarfare-resilient communications technology, can provide a significant advantage for European defense that would put Russian technology at significant disadvantage. Europe should soon realize that hybrid warfare operations against the continent come from multiple actors around the world and utilizing its domestic tech sector to counter these efforts would generate jobs and a stronger defense industrial base.