Executive Summary
Colombia’s election of Abelardo de La Espriella marks a sharp shift towards a more militarised security strategy, aligning the country with a broader regional rightward trend. Ten years after the 2016 Peace Agreement, armed groups are larger and more territorially present, while the new government proposes ending negotiations, expanding military operations and resuming coca fumigation. These policies are likely to have regional consequences. Ecuador could face renewed humanitarian displacement and the movement of criminal organisations, while Venezuela may see greater ELN activity if the group retreats across the border. Both countries will therefore face increased pressure to strengthen border security, institutional capacity and humanitarian responses.
Key Points
- Colombia’s new government marks an ideological shift to the right, aligning the country with the regional majority.
- The militarization of Colombian security is expected to increase, which will place pressure on neighbouring security strategies.
- Ecuador could face renewed humanitarian displacement and greater criminal movement along its northern border, adding pressure to its internal security crisis.
- Venezuela may experience increased ELN activity if reduced dialogue and stronger military pressure in Colombia push the group further into Venezuelan territory.
Analysis
On 21 June 2026, Colombia held the second round of its presidential election, electing Abelardo de La Espriella, a far-right politician, as President. His victory marks a significant shift in Colombia’s political trajectory and is likely to reshape its security strategy. This change must be understood within a broader national and regional context. September 2026 marks the tenth anniversary of the peace agreement between the Colombian government and FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia/Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), which was expected to end the conflict. Yet, despite the agreement and FARC’s commitment to laying down its weapons, peace has remained elusive in Colombia.
The end of the armed conflict represented a major turning point for Colombia, even though violence has persisted, as armed groups now have around 27,000 members and operate across 47% of the country, compared with 18,000 members before the peace deal. The peace agreement also transformed Colombia politically, helping create the conditions for the election of Gustavo Petro in 2022, the first left-wing president since the country became a republic. De La Espriella represents an almost complete reversal of that political and security approach, in what could be understood as a form of overcorrection. While Petro adopted a more humanist security policy centred on negotiation, De La Espriella is returning to a hard-line vision of security that frames the fight against armed and criminal groups in more explicitly militarised terms.
Latin America is experiencing a rise in right-wing governments with strongly securitised agendas. Examples include Bukele in El Salvador, Kast in Chile and Noboa in Ecuador. Fundamentally, they share a similar understanding of public security. What will this policy look like in practice? According to De La Espriella, it will involve building maximum-security prisons, increasing penalties, ending dialogue with armed groups, militarising territory and fumigating coca plantations. This will have important implications, especially for its neighboring countries.
Policy Implications
- De La Espriella’s presidency may improve Colombia–Ecuador relations after a period marked by tariffs, extraterritorial bombings and political disputes, but ideological alignment will not eliminate border security risks.
- Renewed coca fumigation could trigger humanitarian displacement similar to that previously linked to glyphosate use, while stronger military pressure could push criminal organisations into Ecuador and worsen its internal armed conflict.
- Ecuador should strengthen border security and humanitarian assistance, particularly as 94% of refugees in the country are Colombian.
- Venezuela will need stronger institutional coordination and security capacity if negotiations with the ELN end with the group pushing further into territory where it has historically operated.
- The ELN’s past behaviour under pressure, including its confrontations with the FARC in Catatumbo, suggests that these pressures could generate further violence.
- Managing the regional effects of Colombia’s more militarised security strategy will require both neighbours to strengthen border governance while limiting humanitarian and security spillovers.
References
Cañizares, A. (2026) ‘Disputa arancelaria entre Ecuador y Colombia: Daniel Noboa y Gustavo Petro’, CNN Español, 30 January. Available at: https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2026/01/30/latinoamerica/ecuador-colombia-noboa-petro-aranceles-orix
Correal, A. and Turkewitz, J. (2026) ‘A Right-Wing Election Victory in Colombia, With a Little Help from Trump’, The New York Times, 25 June. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/world/americas/colombia-election-de-la-espriella-trump.html
Ehl, D. (2024) ‘Understanding Ecuador’s “internal armed conflict”’, Deutsche Welle, 14 January. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/understanding-ecuadors-internal-armed-conflict/a-67969203
Escobar Moreno, D. (2026) ‘El costo humano del glifosato en Nariño: lo que encontró la JEP sobre la fumigación aérea’, El Espectador, 5 March. Available at: https://www.elespectador.com/investigacion/el-costo-humano-del-glifosato-en-narino-lo-que-encontro-la-jep-sobre-la-fumigacion-aerea-durante-los-gobiernos-de-uribe-y-santos/
Ferré-Sadurní, L. (2026) ‘A Shattered Peace: Inside Colombia’s Never-Ending Drug War’, The New York Times, 15 June. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/americas/colombia-drug-war-violence-petro.html
Ferré-Sadurní, L., León Cabrera, J.M., Correal, A. and Schmitt, E. (2026) ‘The U.S. Said It Helped Bomb a Drug Camp. It Was a Dairy Farm’, The New York Times, 24 March. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/americas/us-ecuador-drug-camp-bombing-dairy-farm.html
InSight Crime (2026) ‘ELN in Venezuela’, 13 January, updated 2 July. Available at: https://insightcrime.org/venezuela-organized-crime-news/eln-in-venezuela/
Leiden University (n.d.) The Policy of ‘Total Peace’ in Colombia: Challenges and Opportunities. Available at: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/research/research-projects/governance-and-global-affairs/the-policy-of-total-peace-in-colombia-challenges-and-opportunities (Accessed: 23 July 2026).
Marcella, G. (2008) War Without Borders: The Colombia–Ecuador Crisis of 2008. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep11903
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2026) UNHCR Ecuador: Operational Update May 2026. 25 June. Available at: https://data.unhcr.org/es/documents/download/123071 (Accessed: 23 July 2026).
U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Counterterrorism (2024) Country Reports on Terrorism 2023. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State. Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2023
Villa Román, E. (2026) ‘Las propuestas de Abelardo de la Espriella: seguridad de “mano dura”, reducción del Estado y libertades tributarias’, El País, 21 June. Available at: https://elpais.com/america-colombia/elecciones-presidenciales/2026-06-21/las-propuestas-de-abelardo-de-la-espriella-seguridad-de-mano-dura-reduccion-del-estado-y-libertades-tributarias.html