Category: Defence & Military Strategy
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The Attribution Trap: Why Knowing Isn’t Enough to Deter Europe’s Hybrid Threats
Executive Summary Europe faces hybrid attacks at an unprecedented pace, yet rapid detection alone cannot stop them. At the European Political Community Summit in Copenhagen on October 1, 2025, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that Europe is in a “hybrid war” with Russia, following drone incursions and infrastructure attacks. Recent debates have focused on…
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The End of Pacifism? Japan Rebuilds for Conflict
Executive Summary Anchored historically by its post-WWII pacifist constitution, particularly Article 9, Japan has long avoided projecting significant military power abroad. Historically, the nation has capped its defence spending at ~ 1% of GDP (approximately ¥5 trillion). However, Japan is undergoing a fundamental transformation of its defence posture amid intensifying security challenges in the Indo-Pacific…
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Conceptualizing a Global Conflagration that Remains Below the Threshold of War
The 2020 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have, in some circles, been viewed as signalling the end of hybrid and unconventional warfare. This view, however, reflects a broader issue in how conflict is discussed—shaped by institutional biases and intellectual trends. In Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife, John A. Nagl…
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The withdrawal of French military forces from Africa
“Ingratitude”: this is the term used by President Emmanuel Macron on January 6th, during the annual conference of ambassadors. The leaders of the countries where French soldiers have intervened “against terrorism” since 2013 have “forgotten to thank us,” while “none of them would have a sovereign state today if the French army had not intervened.…
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German Defence Spending Increase
Executive Summary After his victory in the German National Elections, Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz expressed strong support for increased European defence integration, particularly in light of Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine peace negotiations. Merz is currently negotiating the formation of a coalition government, with early reports indicating that large-scale defence spending is being considered. However, due…
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US Geopolitical and its impact on Korean Peninsula
Executive Summary Following the Munich Security Conference on the 14-16th of February, the fast paced decline of diplomatic relationships between the US and other western, democratic countries such as Canada, UK and the EU has been incredibly significant for the role of US geopolitical power in the global landscape. Its increasingly close relationship with Russia…
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Leverage, Momentum & Escalation
As the war in Ukraine continues and the prospect of negotiations between President Trump and President Putin gains traction, policy analysts face the daunting challenge of evaluating any potential outcomes. The future of any peace deal hinges on three critical factors: Russia’s willingness to escalate, the current battlefield momentum, and U.S. leverage over Ukraine. Understanding…
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The Quad in Trump’s Agenda
Executive Summary Donald Trump’s inauguration reinforces the U.S. commitment to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside India, Japan, and Australia. On January 21, a summit was held, marking Trump’s first major diplomatic engagement. Newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the foreign ministers of the Quad nations, emphasizing the Indo-Pacific’s strategic significance. The…