Executive Summary
North Korea conducted its first ballistic missile drill of 2026 on the 4th of January. The missile launches were carried out in violation of the UN Security Council resolution to ban North Korean ballistic activity. The drill followed the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and coincided with a visit by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to summit talks in China.
Key Points
- North Korea launched several ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on the 4th of January 2026.
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un cited recent geopolitical instability and developments in national defence in relation to the missile drill.
- The missile launches followed hours after the US military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
- The drill was carried out shortly before the South Korean president’s visit to China for summit talks.
- South Korea, Japan, and the US remained in close coordination following the launches first detected by South Korea at around 7:50 local time.
Analysis
The launches fall in line with Kim Jong Un’s commitment to increase North Korea’s military strength. Just before the drill, North Korean state media reported his demand for a 250% expansion of the production capacity of tactical guided weapons after a visit by Kim to a weapons factory. In direct relation to the launches, Kim stated the need to strengthen North Korea’s military means following the recent geopolitical instability.
The cited instability pertains to the US capture of the Venezuelan president which Kim referred to as “a serious encroachment of sovereignty”. The US raid presents a direct danger to Kim, who has repeatedly accused the US of wanting to remove North Korea’s power or impose a regime change. The missile drill can therefore serve as a signal to the US that North Korea possesses a greater military strength than Venezuela and would be ready to make use of it when under attack.
Furthermore, the launches took place shortly before South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s state visit to China for summit talks. Given China’s importance as an economic partner to North Korea, any strengthening of the relationship between South Korea and China poses a potential threat to the North Korea—China trade partnership. Wi Sung-Lac, Director of South Korea’s Office of National Security, spoke about South Korea’s hopes to facilitate dialogue with North Korea through China. The summit talks were thus also expected to cover the peace developments on the Korean peninsula.
Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi warned that North Korea’s military developments pose a threat to Japan and international security. Japan and South Korea publicly condemned the launch and the US issued a statement reaffirming their commitment to defending its homeland and allied regions. No public statements were made by Russia or China.
Policy Implications
- There is a need for increased alliance coordination. Japan, South Korea, and the US must continue collaborating closely and visibly. Missile defense cooperation could signal joint readiness and reassure other allies.
- The timing of the launches shortly ahead of the South Korea-China summit signals North Korea’s readiness to undermine diplomatic relations involving China, which complicates South Korea’s attempts at facilitating dialogue through Beijing.
- International norms need to be reinforced. The continued breach of UN Security Council resolutions highlights the erosion of enforcement mechanisms against North Korea. The lack of public statements by China and Russia further limits coordinated international pressure.