Executive Summary
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolution to capture the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, on narcoterrorism charges. The operation came amid increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean since August 2025 and followed a series of bombings that targeted drug-trafficking vessels bound for the United States. The circumstances surrounding the fall of the Maduro regime, along with post-operation statements, sparked polarized opinions about regional stability and security and raised questions about the effectiveness of hemispheric security cooperation mechanisms versus the use of kinetic force and violations of sovereign territory. Across Latin America, reactions were divided: while some celebrated the capture of dictator Maduro, others voiced concern about what was considered a return to U.S. expansionist and interventionist policies.
Key Points
- The military intervention sets a concerning precedent on the use of force and violation of sovereignty in the hemisphere, as well as on the observance of international law.
- Latin America is politically fragmented, which reduces the possibilities of a unified approach.
- Uncertainty prevails on Trump’s intentions in the region and his strategy to combat drug trafficking.
- Security risks persist due to the presence of criminal organizations such as Tren Aragua, Cartel de Sinaloa, and los Zetas, who will seek alternative ways to operate.
- The crisis shed light on the limits of multilateralism and the role of the OAE against unilateral military action.
Analysis
Territorial Sovereignty and International Law Under Strain
Maduro’s capture generated sharp debate over the kinetic use of force and respect for the UN Charter, the OAS Charter, and international law. The legality of the operation has been questioned inside and outside the United States, as it was carried out without Congressional authorization. For its part, the UN Secretary-General declared that the operation sets a dangerous precedent for the unilateral use of force by states.
Regional Outlook
Following Maduro’s capture and transfer, President Trump raised the possibility of military action in Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico, as well as maintaining U.S. military presence in the Caribbean Sea as part of Operation Southern Spear. This statement stirred controversy after the Trump administration shared plans to run Venezuela for an indefinite period, expressed interest in determining the terms for resource extraction, and kept open the option of a second military wave should Venezuelan local leaders interfere with Trump’s strategies.
A New Counter-Narcotics Strategy
According to State Department estimates, between 200 and 250 tons of cocaine were trafficked through Venezuela, where criminal organizations including the Sinaloa Cartel, Los Zetas, and Tren de Aragua operated. With Operation Absolute Resolution, the Trump administration has moved away from precedents such as Plan Colombia (2000) and the Mérida Initiative (2007), which were characterized by a more cooperative approach with regional governments, in favor of a unilateral hard-power approach.
The Role of the OAS
The state of multilateralism in the region has also been affected, particularly the role of the OAS as a regional multilateral organization focused, among other objectives, on hemispheric security. Its tepid response to the violation of the OAS Charter and member states’ obligations to respect sovereignty under international law has raised concerns.
Policy Implications
- Restoration of regional cooperation mechanisms and respect for international law. The current polarization reveals the undervaluation of multilateral organizations like the OAS and their function as spaces for dialogue and mediation in the peaceful resolution of disputes among member states. Reactivating dialogue forums as well as joint initiatives to combat drug trafficking would restore stability and rebuild trust among states.
- Anticipate security spillovers through coordinated threat mitigation. The presence of organized criminal organizations and drug trafficking networks calls for strengthened joint actions such as intelligence sharing, border risk management, and coordinated legal tools to reduce criminal adaptability during transitional instability.
- Avoid securitized escalation and address migration and humanitarian strain. Venezuela has faced social and economic insecurity during Maduro’s regime, as well as mass migration. Latin American states need to develop joint action plans for economic recovery and humanitarian assistance to restore national institutions. Likewise, democratic monitoring strategies should be designed in anticipation of the upcoming political transition, possibly enabled through new elections.
References
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