Executive Summary
China and Pakistan have held 22 high-level meetings, just this year. In September, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, hosted in Tianjin. Beijing has maintained diplomatic relations with Pakistan since 1950, this brotherhood has been described by the PRC’s ministry of foreign affairs as an “unbreakable bond” and an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership”. They established one of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)’s flagship projects: the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Besides trade relations and an economic partnership, China has also begun to foster military collaboration through the sale of weapons. While China woos its neighbours, India is finding itself sidelined within South Asian diplomacy. Historically, New Delhi has pursued a middle-of-the-road diplomatic strategy, avoiding overt alignment with either the United States or its BRICS partners, Russia and China. But as US-India relations have soured over tariff disputes, New Delhi now faces mounting pressure from its increasingly assertive northern neighbour. China is prioritising its diplomatic ties with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, and India risks having fewer regional partners to rely on.
Key Points
- Modern Chinese supplied weapons were used during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict this May.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Mohammad Ishaq Dar discussed the continued commitment to CPEC on May 20.
- The first summit between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was hosted in China on June 19 to discuss trade, green infrastructure, culture, education, agriculture and investment.
- Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met with Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong on November 17 to discuss countering terrorism and strengthening security between the two countries.
Analysis
China provided Pakistan with intelligence, HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, PL-15 air-to-air missiles, and the J-10C fighter aircrafts during the India-Pakistan conflict in May. While the clash only lasted four days, this military alignment marked a clear deepening of the China–Pakistan strategic partnership.
Launched in 2015, CPEC has faced several delays, including Pakistan’s delayed loan repayments and the death of Chinese workers in a terrorist attack. However, China’s Foreign Minister expressed a renewed commitment to the corridor despite these hold ups. CPEC is meant to link Pakistan’s southwestern port of Gwadar to China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang through a network of highways, railways, and ports. One of these projects is the Karakoram Highway, which runs through Kashmir, a region claimed by India, China and Pakistan. Access to the port would give China strategic access to the Indian Ocean, through which 80% of the world’s seaborne trade passes. Pakistan and China’s joint decision to build substantial infrastructure through Kashmir, all the way to the Indian Ocean has effectively bypassed New Delhi’s diplomatic leverage in the land and maritime region.
While China has always maintained a close relationship with Pakistan, Xi has begun expanding his relations in South Asia, increasing high-profile visits with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The first trilateral summit was held between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh and is expected to extend an invitation to Sri Lanka. By cultivating closer ties with India’s neighbors, China is creating a form of strategic encirclement. Beijing’s economic dominance and its attractive BRI scheme makes it an increasingly compelling partner. While Bangladesh’s previous government maintained close ties to India, the current regime is steadily shifting toward China and India risks losing one of its closest allies in South Asia.
Policy Implications
- Modi should prioritise strengthening diplomatic and economic ties with South Asian neighbors like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal to counter China’s growing influence.
- India must collaborate more with the Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the US) in order to secure its trade ports especially in the Bay of Bengal to ensure it maintains a level of influence in its maritime domain.
- India should also continue to develop its ‘Act East’ policy in collaboration with ASEAN, Japan and South Korea, and strengthen relationships with China’s neighbours as a counter measure.