Executive Summary:
The prominent rise to power of Ibrahim Traoré, Interim President of Burkina Faso for the past 3 years, has reshaped geopolitical trends in the Sahel region. Traoré has taken a strong position against French economic and military influence by expelling all French military forces, leaving the ECOWAS (The Economic Community of West African States), and creating the Alliance of Sahel States alongside Mali and Niger. As a result of turning away from Paris, Traoré now relies on Moscow’s Africa Corps to fight against JNIM and other Islamic insurgent groups, marking a decisive shift in local politics with a strong anti-colonial narrative, leaving French historical dominance over the region at stake.
Key Points
- In 2022, Ibrahim Traoré, then a 34‑year‑old artillery officer, overthrew Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba amidst security issues, becoming the Interim President of Burkina Faso.
- Over the last decade, there’s been a surge in Islamist activity in the northernmost departments of the country, especially those belonging to the Liptako-Gourma region.
- 6 months after taking power, Traoré’s military junta expelled all 400 soldiers of the French Special Forces based in Kamboinsin, near the country’s capital.
- After the failed mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Wagner, in 2023, the Africa Corps, a paramilitary group controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD), took over the fight against Islamists in the entire Sahel region.
Analysis
The current geopolitical trends in the Sahel indicate that the historical dominance of France in its former colonies in the region, the so-called ‘Françafrique’, is under threat, as the growing anti-colonial sentiments in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali have led to a major shift from Paris to Moscow. Likewise, with growing military confrontations between the JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) against the military and the VDP (Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland), Traoré has started a major chain reaction, as the French military forces are “vanishing” from the Sahel while Russian-backed mercenaries are taking over.
Moreover, not only has the military presence of the Africa Corps increased, but so has Chinese economic investment through its New Belt and Road Initiative, including a $49 million solar loan. It is worth noting that countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, or Niger are extremely wealthy in terms of mineral resources, having significant gold and uranium reserves, sparking interest of major economic players to invest in the region.
Major economic and political trends favor new relationships between the Alliance of Sahel States, Russia, and China at the detriment of the historical influence that France held over these countries. However, this new economic “gamble” may well fail if the African Corps is unable to stop surging terrorist activity, which poses a major threat to economic development and resource extraction.
Policy Implications:
- As part of a broader anti-colonial sentiment in the region, Burkina Faso has created the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) alongside Mali and Niger, thereby threatening the hegemony of ECOWAS in the Sahel.
- This shift from Paris to Moscow could also lead to a snowball effect of economic and political consequences, including all 3 nations leaving the Central Bank of West African States as well as its currency, the CFA Franc (XOF).
- Another policy effect of this realignment came 5 months ago, as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso decided to withdraw from the ICC (International Criminal Court), under mounting pressure from Moscow.
Sources:
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel
https://acleddata.com/report/economic-warfare-escalates-militants-expand-beyond-sahel
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/2/23/burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-debate-exiting-cfa-zone
https://thediplomat.com/2025/11/chinas-sahel-gamble-falters-as-insurgencies-rage
https://thediplomat.com/2025/11/chinas-sahel-gamble-falters-as-insurgencies-rage