Executive summary:
Tensions along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border escalated significantly in February 2026. Pakistan launched airstrikes on 21–22 February, targeting alleged militant infrastructure in eastern Afghanistan. The Pakistani government has accused Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TPP), a terrorist Islamist organisation, of launching attacks from Afghan territory. However, the Taliban government rejected these accusations and conversely condemned Pakistani actions, Given Pakistan’s increased exposure to transnational violence and Afghanistan’s economic and political crisis, these border tensions could further intensify military activity in the region.
Key-Points:
- Recent cross-border attacks by the TTP have sparked a Pakistani military response, marking a shift toward more direct confrontation.
- Pakistan has threatened to launch a larger cross-border military operation against these groups.
- The Taliban government rejects any responsibility for TTP’s activity and has labelled Pakistani attacks as breaches of sovereignty, suggesting the possibility of retaliation.
Analysis
Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have significantly deteriorated, pointing to deeply rooted tensions rather than a temporary disagreement. Although Islamabad initially expected the Taliban government to curb militant groups operating near the border, they appear to continue carrying out attacks against Pakistan. Therefore, the continued presence of these groups suggests that the Taliban government has a limited capacity or willingness to suppress militant activity along the border.
The disputed Durand Line has been a constant source of tension between the two states. The border, established during British colonial rule, has been consistently questioned by Afghan authorities. This disagreement weakens cooperation and enables militant groups to operate on both sides, as it undermines clear jurisdiction. The conflict escalated in February 2026, when Pakistan targeted alleged militant positions in eastern Afghanistan. Islamabad argued that these operations were meant to disrupt TTP networks. However, the Afghan Taliban government condemned these strikes and claimed that civilians were targeted.
Domestic pressures also play an important role in these escalations. Pakistan faces rising militant violence, increasing pressure on the government to act. On the other hand, the Taliban authorities are experiencing significant economic hardships and very limited international recognition, limiting their ability to counter militant groups.
These tensions are occurring within a broader context of regional instability. Ongoing conflict involving Iran has already affected dynamics across the Middle-East, including strikes on US assets in Gulf states. These developments increase pressure on regional and international actors, reducing their capacity to respond to other disputes.
Policy Implications:
- Security dilemma
Pakistan is now facing a security dilemma. Continued operations of militant groups such as the TTP are increasing public dissatisfaction, as they heighten physical insecurity. The government therefore faces pressure to act decisively.
Islamabad could continue limited cross-border strikes aimed at containing specific groups or escalate to a broader military campaign targeting militant infrastructure inside Afghanistan. While a restrained approach would reduce the risk of escalation, a more aggressive strategy appears likely, as ongoing cross-border strikes suggest Islamabad is already moving in this direction.
- Weakness of Taliban government
This situation highlights the limits of the Taliban government. The presumed unwillingness to curb the actions of militant groups undermines its sovereignty claims, thereby complicating efforts to gain international recognition. Hence, the government would need to introduce specific measures (such as tightening border control) to demonstrate control. The Taliban could also seek to improve relations with Pakistan. However, their capacity to act remains constrained, and no large-scale action should be expected.
- Spillover instability
This crisis creates risks for other states in the region. Since militant groups operate across contested borders, they may expand their activities to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (North-West Pakistan). There, they could establish connections with other regional groups as counterterrorism efforts weaken. In addition, violence along the border can trigger displacement flows, as civilians may be forced to evacuate border zones.
Although regional and external actors could attempt to contain these risks, such responses are unlikely in the near term, as broader regional crises are diverting attention and resources. As a result, the crisis is likely to remain unmanaged.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjmrxkwk3mo
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