Executive summary
Britain has undergone a recent leadership change under the current Labour Party, having won a massive majority back in 2024, but Keir Starmer’s unpopular prime ministership has caused political disarray. Due to this, new prime minister Andy Burnham has arrived at No 10 with little to no experience in foreign affairs, leading many to wonder which direction he may take or what he will focus on in this increasingly turbulent world.
Key points
- Andy Burnham has not set a clear foreign policy goal yet has established his legitimacy as head of the UK with his “Burnham Bump” and his charisma.
- His cabinet appointments offer clues to likely foreign policy decisions.
- Burnham’s “Northern way” indicates a diplomatic approach to geopolitics that is more involved in European and American interstate relations.
Analysis
After months of deliberation, there has been a swift change in British politics with unpopular prime minister Keir Starmer stepping down and the rapid rise of Labour’s former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham becoming Britain’s prime new minister. This has been a seismic shift in how the Labour Party works but falls in line with the current trend in British politics, which is that of booting out sitting Prime ministers if the polls do not improve.
However, this change of face in No 10 has led to many analysts and political scientists speculating whether Andy Burnham even has a clear set of ideas rather than an abstract political ideology now called “Manchesterism”— a mix of neo-liberal finance capitalism alongside a more social and direct government to help those most in need. This lack of an agenda goes further in the realm of foreign policy and geopolitics which has worried some within the Labour Party. Al Carns, who was the only Labour candidate who potentially threatened Burnham’s rise to power, said that Burnham was not “clear” on matters of “defence, spending and a future plan of investment for the UK”.
The essence is that these first few weeks have led to Burnham implementing broadly popular domestic policies whilst only hinting at what new directions his new administration is planning to head. A clean break from Keir Starmer’s foreign policy is unlikely, but a “correction” is possible. Burnham, known to be of varying factions within the Labour Party (which does not help in deciphering his views any better) has hinted at closer relations with Europe and a reset with the US as he invited Trump to Manchester without appearing submissive towards American foreign policy.
Policy implications
- Cabinet picks reinforce a security-focused tone: Burnham’s cabinet picks continued a similar tone as Starmer’s on security measures, possibly going a step further with John Healy as Chancellor, who vowed to raise defence spending under innovative programs with transatlantic help. Healy resigned under Starmer precisely due to lack of defence spending and wanting to join Canada’s investment plan.
- Streeting signals deeper European defence ties: Wes Streeting as Defence minister helps see an administration that not only wants to commit to NATO but to possibly commit further to European defence—hinting towards closer EU relations as he is an avowed internationalist—and broader military deals with the European mainland. Burnham’s approach to migration—following the Ceuta border crisis—similarly aligns with EU leaders critical of Pedro Sánchez’s immigration policies.
- Burnham treads carefully with Trump: According to comments by Andy Burnham in both Labour strongholds and directly to the press, it seems this rapid rise to No 10 has made Burnham cautious not to disturb Trump by both inviting him to Manchester and affirming the Anglo-American relationship.
- Vague promises on Palestine: Burnham has vaguely promised to reverse Labour’s stance on Palestine to some old Labour constituents who were disturbed by Starmer’s position on Gaza, but this has yet to be seen.
- Overall trajectory: Over the following months, it is expected there will be an administration that is less independently ambitious on defence spending and more in tune with NATO spending targets, more involved in both Europe and North America, and possibly shifting Labour’s Middle East policy with Ed Miliband taking on the responsibility for Britain’s foreign affairs.