Executive Summary
Japan has approved a historically large defense budget and committed to a sustained increase in the coming years in response to both domestic sentiment and international pressure. While Japan is aligned towards pacifism through its constitution, the expansion of its defense budget is important in understanding its relationship with the global environment. This trajectory is not necessarily without challenges, as various constraints and potential obstacles remain in place.
Key Facts and Figures
- The most prominent component of this expansion is the drafted national budget from 2025 to 2026, which increased by 9.4% and is up for review in April 2026. The currently-approved defense budget plan from December 2025 exceeds 9 trillion yen ($58 billion).
- Popular support in November 2025 gauged an increased domestic favoritism and support towards strengthening defense capabilities: 62.8% were in favor, while 32.3% were against, and a higher trend of support amongst younger demographics
Background / Context
Japan’s defense environment is distinctly shaped by its postwar history and Article Nine of the constitution, which renounces its ability to make or wage war, while still allowing for maintaining a self-defense force in order to protect itself. Since 1951, Japan has viewed its U.S. alliance as a cornerstone of its defense and deterrence strategy, while defense spending remained around 1% in order to prevent militarization, through both formal and informal caps. In 2017, starting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, military spending rose faster than the GDP, and spending rose above 1%, along with efforts to normalize and expand the JSDF’s role by amending the constitution (Article Nine).
A predominantly large pacifistic base (Komeito) within the LDP curbed Abe’s ambitions. In 2022, Japan’s National Defense Strategy shifted its target on defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP. In 2025, following the collapse of the LDP–Komeito partnership and the election of Sanae Takaichi, momentum has increased. However, Kometio and the CDPJ have consolidated as a bloc with a significant number of seats that could be a roadblock to LDP defense goals.
Current Status / Future Status & Trends
This is part of a continuity whereby Japan’s defense spending continues to increase, with PM Sanae Takaichi pledging to accelerate Japan’s military buildup in response to perceived changes in the security environment. With the dissolution of the LDP and Komeito coalition, the new coalition partner, JIP (Japan Innovation Party), indicates common ground towards defense views, contrasting Komeito, whose pacifist support base constrained LDP ambitions. In light of new domestic conditions and an international environment that has seen an uptick in armed conflict and perceived security risks, Japan’s trajectory advances. This is the fourth year in Japan’s five-year program, and with an initial deadline of 2027, the administration is set reach its goal two years ahead of schedule, with plans to revise it by December 2026
While this support and fervor for defense measures ensues, constraints, with parliamentary approval as an important agent. Although plans to fund growing spending through taxes and a plan for an increased income tax continue, Japan’s last two national political campaigns featured multiple parties calling for tax reductions to address inflation and other challenges. LDP (and JIP) support is not as high as Takaichi’s approval ratings, who plans to capitalize by calling a snap election in an attempt to increase and restore the LDP’s power base on her popular support. Some in Beijing are alarmed by Japan’s “deviation” from peaceful development, as tension continues to grow. On January 6, 2026, China banned dual-use goods exports to Japan’s military, expectedly impacting Japan’s rare-earth imports, which are essential for Japan’s automotive sector, among other applications. This also exists concurrently with a rise in pressure from the United States in increasing military spending, and Japan’s desire to strengthen that relationship.
References
https://apnews.com/article/japan-takaichi-politics-policy-defense-4b885276a0052297ab633bac31715254
The proposed hike in Japan’s military expenditure | SIPRI
Japan’s Cabinet approves record defense budget aiming to deter China as tensions grow | PBS News
防衛費増額「賛成」6割、「18～29歳で8割」「70歳以上は4割」 世代差あらわ – 産経ニュース
Japan’s Present and Future National Security Strategy: Five Key Challenges to Watch
China bans dual-use goods exports for Japan military over Taiwan remarks | Reuters
Japanese Cabinet approves record defense spending | AP News
\Why Shinzo Abe faces an uphill battle to revise Japan’s constitution | Brookings
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s Prime Minister, Calls for Snap Election – The New York Times