On 18 February 2026, the European Commission published its Communication on the EU’s eastern regions bordering Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine [1], bearing the significant subtitle ‘Strong regions for a safe Europe’. The document is presented as ‘a comprehensive strategy to step up support for the EU eastern regions bordering Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine’ [2]. The strategy is designed to support the border regions of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, as these regions have been particularly affected by Russia’s aggressive actions.
In the following brief commentary, I highlight the principal strengths of this document in the context of the challenges facing the European Union’s security policy in the coming years.
1. The European Commission describes the EU’s eastern border regions as ‘gatekeepers of our security’. In light of the various challenges confronting the Union – both internal and external, particularly in its relations with the United States – it is essential to remain aware that the most significant threats to the European Union currently come from Russia and Belarus (although Belarus can no longer be considered an independent actor in international relations).
2. To understand the complexity of the tasks set by the European Commission for the entire Union, it is useful to outline key elements of the security context affecting the Union’s eastern regions:
- In the states situated on the eastern flank of the Union, there exists a persistent threat of armed attack from Russia. The possibility of military aggression, whether through limited conflict or localised military operations, constitutes a particular risk for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Any initiatives aimed at enhancing security in this part of the European Union must treat this factor as a priority.
- Beyond the risk of direct military aggression, the EU’s eastern border regions remain vulnerable to other manifestations of Russian hostile activity, including acts of sabotage (such as arson or the destruction of transport and communications infrastructure) and disinformation campaigns. The migration crisis along the eastern borders of Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland, actively provoked and instrumentalised by Russia and Belarus, continues to represent a significant security challenge.
- A potential ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine would not resolve the region’s underlying security dilemmas and could even intensify them. A cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would not necessarily constrain Russia’s broader confrontational posture and might instead free additional resources for destabilising actions elsewhere.
- Russia’s aggression and the consequences of the war against Ukraine, ongoing since 2022, have exacerbated pre-existing structural problems in the eastern regions of the European Union, particularly depopulation and economic stagnation. While Russian actions have intensified these difficulties, they should not be regarded as their root cause.
3. Could the proposals contained in the strategy prove effective?
The adoption of such a strategy is undoubtedly necessary. At present, however, some of its declarations remain relatively general, particularly those concerning unemployment, depopulation, and broader economic development. A more precise evaluation will only be possible once detailed policy instruments and funding mechanisms have been specified.
What elements already appear promising?
The cornerstone of security for the Union’s eastern regions, and indeed for the European Union as a whole, remains military security. This must be understood as the strengthening of armed forces capable not only of effective defence but also of credible deterrence. This includes, for example, the capacity to assume control of strategically significant territories such as the Kaliningrad Oblast or to repel potentially attacking forces of Russia or its allies beyond the borders of the European Union, thereby ensuring that any potential armed conflict does not occur on Union territory. Emphasising the rapid enhancement of military capabilities is likewise essential for conflict prevention, particularly given that contemporary Russia continues to respond primarily to the logic of hard power.
Particularly significant are initiatives aimed at strengthening air defence, including the capacity to protect EU airspace against Russian drones. Ensuring the safety of air transport and safeguarding national airspace are critical priorities in a context marked by persistent Russian provocations aimed not only at intimidating the population and causing social unrest. The emphasis on security in the Baltic Sea region is likewise well founded, given the pattern of hybrid activities, including attacks on energy and communications infrastructure, often associated with vessels operating within Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’.
Measures designed to reinforce energy and transport security are also likely to play a decisive role. Further integration of infrastructure networks, especially connections linking the Baltic States with Poland, carries not only economic significance but also clear strategic and military implications. The Lithuanian-Polish border area, in particular, constitutes a location of critical importance for regional security, owing to its vulnerability in potential crisis scenarios.
The strategy’s strong focus on economic development reflects a commendable long-term perspective. Although its practical effectiveness remains to be seen, the document correctly recognises that many of the challenges facing the eastern regions predate Russia’s war against Ukraine and are rooted in long-standing structural neglect.
The European Commission integrates initiatives aimed at strengthening security in the EU’s eastern regions with a broader policy of enhancing cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova. This signals the European Union’s continued commitment to supporting the integration of these two states, with the prospect of future membership clearly in view. The Commission’s support for Ukraine and Moldova in the face of persistent political, military, and economic pressure from Russia further reinforces the Union’s role as a crucial guarantor of their sovereignty and stability. Moreover, by deepening cooperation with these countries, the Commission implicitly recognises that their security and strategic orientation are closely aligned with the Union’s own security objectives. Consequently, strengthening their resilience and integration with the EU also contributes directly to the security of the Union itself.
The principal challenge associated with the strategy announced by the European Commission, as with many comparable initiatives, lies in the effectiveness of its implementation. It remains uncertain whether the European Union as a whole, together with its individual member states, will consistently carry out the proposed measures, especially those requiring the strengthening of defence and economic capabilities without undue concern over potential reactions from Russia.
Written by Professor Marcin Składanowski, Fellow at CISES and Full Professor of Russian and International Security Studies at the Catholic University of Lublin
[2] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_433