Executive Summary
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been put into abeyance by India after being widely known as an enduring transboundary water agreement between the otherwise hostile nations of India and Pakistan for over 60 years. With the 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam being the key reason for the suspension, cracks in the cooperation between India and Pakistan were becoming visible in the months and years prior due to diplomatic obstacles hindering a long overdue modernization of the treaty’s decades-old framework. While the people of Pakistan and the country’s economy are completely dependent on the western rivers of the Indus River System (IRS), the brief war following the 2025 terrorist attack and the inherently damaged diplomatic ties are not the only factors complicating efforts in restoring transboundary water cooperation.
Key Facts
- The IRS, made up of seven major rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Indus, Jhelum, Chenab and Kabul), provides water for about 96% of Pakistan’s and 26% of India’s crop production with Pakistan’s economy depending almost entirely on agriculture, and therefore on the western rivers of the basin.
- Signed in 1960, the IWT regulated river allocations and water rights between Pakistan and India for more than sixty years, surviving multiple armed conflicts.
- After multiple unsuccessful efforts with Pakistan to initiate amendment talks for certain treaty clauses, and then following the 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India put the treaty into abeyance.
Background & Context
With the 1947 partition separating the IRS into two new countries and contested regions between them, international mediation facilitated by the World Bank led to the signing of the IWT in 1960. While requiring the upstream hydro-hegemon India to ensure 70% of the basin’s annual flow reaches Pakistani territory in order to secure the latter country’s immense reliance on the river system, the treaty became the international gold standard for transboundary water agreements primarily due to its focus on technicalities and depoliticization (in one of the most politicized regions of the world). Nonetheless, those technicalities remain bound to inflexible clauses rendering the treaty unfit to tackle climate change and with it problems such as groundwater depletion or water-flow unpredictability. Therefore, India started multiple attempts to start amendment talks with Pakistan, which remained unsuccessful. Finally, the treaty experienced ultimate politicization following the April 2025 Islamist terrorist attack in Indian-administered Pahalgam (Jammu & Kashmir), in response to which India put the IWT into abeyance accusing Pakistan of sponsoring cross-border terrorism.
Current Status & Trends
As of now, there is no progress in sight with regards to a modernization, let alone simple restoration of the treaty by India. On the one side, Pakistan is accusing India of weaponizing its hydro-hegemony, although experts say India does not yet possess the infrastructural capacity to do so. On the other side, India is not only demanding Pakistan to irrevocably stop its alleged support for cross-border terrorism, but also to improve its water storage infrastructure. Pakistan itself recognizes those limited water storing capabilities, while Indian experts claim Pakistan is instrumentalizing a victimhood mentality to shift focus and potential blame of its own systemic failures to the hydro-hegemon India. As diplomatic ties between both countries are slowly redeveloping, productive progress regarding the IWT remains a distant thought. It remains to be observed, whether India sees any value in restoring the treaty without Pakistan committing to negotiate about technical amendments. Another necessity called for by Indian experts is for Pakistan to improve its dam capabilities in order to reduce the currently large share of the western rivers water flow ending up in the Arabian Sea.