Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Japan’s Nuclear Posture: Between pacifist identity and regional security pressures
Introduction On 17 July 2026, Japan’s defence minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, called for nuclear policy discussion “without taboos”, hinting at a potential review of the “Three Non-Nuclear…
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Canada and the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP): Implications for the Canada-US Relationship?
Executive Summary In July 2026, Canada became the first observer state to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a multinational collaborative initiative led by the…
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US Procurement and Korean Shipbuilding: The Legislative Question and the Political Economy of Shipbuilding
Executive Summary As geopolitical competition between China and the US intensifies, the national security priorities of the US state have often clashed with that of domestic…
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Administered, Not Claimed: Where Japan’s Deterrence Actually Holds
Executive Summary Although Japan is becoming more capable militarily, its deterrence is not equally strong across all of its territorial disputes. The Senkaku Islands, a group…
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Assessment of the Pentagon’s Reported Shift Towards Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Executive Summary The US Department of Defence is reportedly drafting a revised nuclear strategy which will place a greater emphasis on short-range tactical nuclear weapons for…
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How Washington Turned the USMCA Review Into a Recurring Extraction Mechanism
Executive Summary On July 1, 2026, the United States declined to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at its mandatory six-year review, breaking with Canada and…
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Germany Redeploys Ships Positioned for Hormuz Mission: Conditional Naval Commitments
Executive Summary On 23 July 2026, the German Ministry of Defence announced the redeployment of two naval vessels, the mine hunter Fulda and support vessel Mosel, from Djibouti, where…
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Looming Giant: China’s CXMT IPO Will Pressure Korean-led Memory Chip Ecosystem
Executive Summary When China’s state-backed chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) made its initial public offering (IPO) on July 27, it became China’s largest publicly traded company…
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Ukraine’s Patriot Plans: Viability Within Europe’s Wider Aim of Strategic Autonomy?
Executive Summary Ukraine’s ambition to secure domestic production of PAC-2/3 Patriot air defence interceptors has been seemingly hindered following President Trump’s public reneging on a pledge…
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Nvidia’s Asian Buyer Whitelist and the Gaps in US Chip Export Controls
Executive Summary The strategy of the United States towards chips export control defines what is prohibited. However, this relies on the action of individual companies to…
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Cyberattacks Driven by Autonomous AI Agents: A Step Change in the Threat Landscape
Executive Summary In July 2026, two distinct incidents reignited the debate over the offensive capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) in cybersecurity. The first concerns Hugging Face,…
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What the Hormuz Crisis Has Revealed About China’s Oil Independence
Executive Summary In response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China cut back oil imports by 40%, a feat most analysts did not anticipate.…