Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Botswana, Angola and the Fight Against Synthetic Diamonds
Botswana and Angola face growing competition from synthetic diamonds. Can provenance, branding and De Beers ownership preserve the value of natural diamonds?
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Expanding US-Colombia Joint Kinetic Operations Against Terror Networks
Executive Summary This assessment analyses the potential for joint US–Colombia aerial kinetic operations, referred to in a military context as aerial actions designed to cause physical…
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Growing and Getting Poorer: Revenue, Return and Realignment in Afghanistan’s Economy, Five Years On
Executive Summary Afghanistan’s economy grew 4.8% in FY2025 while real income per head fell 5.6%, a divergence explained by the 5.4 million Afghans returned from Iran…
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Joint Development and Cooperation in the High North: The 212CD Submarine Program
Introduction In 2017, an agreement between Norway’s Kongsberg and Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) (Royal Norwegian Ministry of Defense, 2017), began what would be a multi-year…
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Turning Mineral Potential into Supply: Colombia and the US
Executive Summary The Colombia-United States (US) memorandum of understanding (MOU) on critical minerals creates a framework for strengthening Colombia’s potential contribution to US supply-chain diversification. In…
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Algeria’s Unusual Defence Budget and Implications for Global Security
If one is to look at the top five countries with the highest share of GDP dedicated to defence spending, the list generally tracks with global…
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What the UK’s Data Centre Boom Reveals About the Stalled Tech Prosperity Deal
Executive Summary The suspension of the UK–US Technology Prosperity Deal in December 2025 exposed a gap between diplomatic cooperation and commercial investment. Signed on 18 September…
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Can the UAE Become An Independent Producer of Military Technology
Introduction The current volatile situation in the Gulf has forced the United Arab Emirates to enter into a direct conflict against Iran earlier this year (Malsin…
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Simandou and the Geoeconomic Reconfiguration of Iron Ore: Guinea, the New Sino-Australian Arbiter?
The growing importance of the Simandou mining corridor calls for a more nuanced assessment of a narrative that has become increasingly common in the Guinean press…
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Denmark’s Gender-Integrated Conscription: A Progressive Blueprint as Europe Rearms
Executive Summary Denmark’s new conscription system began on 3 August 2026, when around 1,600 young people started 11 months of military service. The intake is the…
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Success vs. Failure: How Does US Domestic Law Overreach Affect Foreign Policy
A US indictment released on 29 April 2026 by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York alleges that Rubén Rocha Moya, the…
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From “Strategic Competitor” to “World War II Ally”: Why Is Trump Being So Courteous to China?
The most striking feature of Xi Jinping’s September state visit to the United States was not simply that the Chinese and American presidents met again. It…