Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Assessment of the Pentagon’s Reported Shift Towards Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Executive Summary The US Department of Defence is reportedly drafting a revised nuclear strategy which will place a greater emphasis on short-range tactical nuclear weapons for…
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Australia’s “Soft Power” Tactics in the Pacific
In early 2024, Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed that the government was in talks with China about a potential security and policing…
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Task Force Talon Synapse: What is new, Who really benefits and What does it mean for the region?
On July 28th US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the creation of Task Force Talon Synapse, a bilateral US-UAE Artificial Intelligence initiative bringing together 20 American and…
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Nvidia’s Asian Buyer Whitelist and the Gaps in US Chip Export Controls
Executive Summary The strategy of the United States towards chips export control defines what is prohibited. However, this relies on the action of individual companies to…
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Cyberattacks Driven by Autonomous AI Agents: A Step Change in the Threat Landscape
Executive Summary In July 2026, two distinct incidents reignited the debate over the offensive capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) in cybersecurity. The first concerns Hugging Face,…
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How the Iran War is Fueling a New Nuclear Arms Race
Executive Summary The war against Iran, launched hours after Tehran agreed to uranium restrictions and full inspection access for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has…
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Suva in the Crosshairs: What China’s reaction to the Australia-Fiji treaty reveals about the limits of bilateral security in the Pacific
Executive Summary On 6 July, Australia and Fiji signed two treaties in Suva: the Ocean of Peace Alliance, Fiji’s first mutual-defence pact, and the Vuvale Union…
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Azerbaijan’s Growing Defence Partnership with Italy: Potential implications for the military balance of power in the South Caucasus
Executive Summary On 9 July 2026, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Defence, Colonel General Zakir Hasanov met in Baku with a delegation led by the National Armaments Director…
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ISIS in Syria and the Potential for Resurgence
With five reported attacks in July, and 67 since the beginning of 2026, some fear a resurgence of ISIS in Syria. Although 2026 has seen a…
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If It’s Legal, Why Can’t Apple Buy Chinese Memory
In June 2026, Tim Cook stated that rising costs in the memory industry were beginning to be reflected in consumer prices. While Apple had previously tried…
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From Diversity to Violence: Ethnicity, Emotions, and Conflict
Introduction In an era characterized by globalization, migration, and intensified cross-border mobility, ethnic diversity has become a defining feature of many contemporary societies. This growing prevalence…
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Greenland as Leverage: Trump Connects Territorial Claims to Threats of US Troop Withdrawal from Europe
Executive Summary At the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump revived the demands for United States (US) control of Greenland and linked them to a…