Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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An AI Cold War: Cultural Erosion or Job Disruption in a Divided World
Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global balance of power, making “AI sovereignty” a central challenge for nations. Countries around the world face a…
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Having a Seat at the Table Requires a Stronghold in AI
Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a defining arena of national power and global diplomacy. Its rapid evolution is reshaping power dynamics, economic competitiveness, and…
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Fortress Gotland: Securing the Baltic’s ‘Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier’
Historically, Sweden’s largest island, Gotland, has served as the most important strategic location in the Baltic Sea. For centuries, its value was defined by its ability…
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Neither Ripe nor Ready: Why has peace-making failed in Sudan?
INTRODUCTION April 2026 marks three years of war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (Amnesty International, 2026). Since…
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European Re-Union? The Renewal of the UK-EU Relationship
The world in which Britain left the European Union is no longer the world in which it finds itself. For almost a decade, the advantages and…
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Beyond Uranium — India’s Fast Breeder Reactor and the Sovereignty Dividend
Introduction India’s Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, attained first criticality last month (Department Of Atomic Energy, 2026), marking a landmark achievement for…
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Economic Diversification amidst competing security imperatives: What leverage can the Philippines’ upcoming FTAs create
Executive Summary As US-China rivalry intensifies across the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, the Philippines faces mounting pressure to align with one power at the…
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The Fragile Critical Minerals Alliance: Why the G7 May Struggle to Break China’s Supply Chain Grip
Executive Summary This text analyzes the practical challenges of G7 cooperation to reduce dependence on critical minerals and permanent magnets supplied by non-G7 countries, especially China.…
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Rebalancing the Information Order Through Strategic Hedging
Executive Summary The accelerating global contest for technological dominance, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), is prompting a new wave of digital sovereignty initiatives among middle powers…
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The Wrong War on Brazil’s Criminal Factions
Executive Summary The designation of the PCC and CV as terrorist organizations by the United States is unlikely to be an effective strategy against organized crime.…
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Two Axes of Pressure: How Trump’s Tariff Escalation Splits Third-Country Economies, Not the World
US-China relations have moved beyond the most dangerous phase following the April 2025 tariff peak. After the Busan summit, Beijing paused the rare earth-related export controls…
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Containing ISKP in a Post-Interventionist Era
Executive Summary Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded its operational reach beyond South Asia.…