Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Can the US-South Korea Alliance Survive Trump 2.0
Since the United States and Israel launched major military strikes against Iran in February, America’s allies have faced mounting pressure to support a conflict that is…
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Attaching liability to agentic identity: How existing law could govern agentic systems
Executive Summary Governments are building the components of agentic accountability separately. Estonia has committed to issuing digital identities for “AI agents” and the EU registers high-risk…
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The $18 Billion Question: What Helsing Reveals About Europe’s Broken Defence Procurement Culture
Introduction In May 2026, Helsing, a Munich-based AI defence company, announced plans to raise funding to an estimated $18 billion with backing from tech billionaire Daniel…
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The EU should rethink its critical mineral strategy in Africa
Executive summary Introduction An increasing number of African countries have placed restrictions on the export of raw minerals, attempting to develop the ability to process them…
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Remote Work As A Vector of Strategic Risk
Executive Summary North Korea’s covert deployment of fraudulent IT workers – operating under false identities, AI-generated personas, and complex proxy networks – has emerged as a…
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The 17th Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas: How Has the “Donroe Doctrine” Affected the Relationships Between Nations in the Western Hemisphere?
Executive Summary Trump’s take on the original Monroe Doctrine, named the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, or the “Donroe Doctrine”, pushes for safety in the…
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Scrap Access is Becoming Critical to Mineral Supply Chain Competition
Executive Summary Access to secondary materials is an important dimension of the critical mineral supply chains and trade. As the ability to recover minerals from waste…
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Inside the Cyberattacks on US Water Infrastructure
Executive Summary In July 2026, cyberattacks targeting water supply and wastewater operations systems in the United States (US) have illuminated persistent cyber vulnerabilities within the Critical…
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Understanding the Designation Paradox
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY States routinely engage diplomatically with armed groups they have designated as terrorist organisations. In June 2026, the United States acknowledged indirect contacts with Hezbollah…
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Iran as Leverage: How Allied Reluctance on Iran Is Reshaping US Security Commitments
Executive Summary On 16 August 2026, Trump announced a scale-down of the joint US-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, explicitly linking the decision to South…
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Japan Conducts First Tomahawk Live-Fire Test: Implications for US-Japan Maritime Strategy
Executive Summary Since 2017, China’s maritime activity in the waters between the South and East China Seas, notably around Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, suggests that…
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The New Caribbean Front: Are Beijing and Moscow reshaping Cuban Defence Strategy?
Executive Summary On 6 August 2026, the United States announced new economic sanctions against Cuban military officials following the Cuban regime’s increasing cooperation with China and…