Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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The Cheap Empire: how Russia turns Western withdrawal into strategic access in the Sahel
Executive Summary Russia does not capture Western mines; it inherits their vacancies. In December 2025, Niger’s state uranium company signed a cooperation agreement with Rosatom’s Uranium…
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Refuse the Terms, Not the Technology: Europe’s Palantir Procurement is Forfeiting Strategic Optionality
On 28 April 2026, Vice Admiral Thomas Daum, Inspector of the Bundeswehr’s Cyber and Information Domain Service, told Handelsblatt that Palantir software is “not being considered…
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Rallied around the authorities, ready to escalate. How Putin is using the result of the State Duma election
In brief: The official result of the State Duma election does not make it possible to determine reliably the actual scale of Russians’ support for individual political…
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The French Military’s Renewed Defence Agreement with Chad
Executive Summary Less than two years after Chad called for the withdrawal of French military forces in November 2024, French troops are slowly returning to the…
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Ukraine’s Freyja Missile Defence: Wartime Innovation, European Industrial Integration, and the Future of Ballistic Missile Interception
Executive Summary In August 2026, Ukrainian defence firm Fire Point secured agreements with over a dozen European defence companies to provide radar, guidance, and command components…
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How GENAI Has Turned the Human Mind Into a Theatre of Conflict
Executive Summary Psychological warfare has existed for years, focused on altering emotions, morale, and behaviour, but has historically operated on the periphery of traditional conflict. The…
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Export-by-Innovation: Britain’s Unique Strategy in Arming Ukraine
Executive Summary Since 2022, the United Kingdom has developed a mutually beneficial dual strategy to aid Ukraine. Alongside the conventional approaches being taken by partners to…
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Why the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is Not a New NATO
When Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7th the immediate reaction among commentators was almost reflexively to frame it…
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The EU should rethink its critical mineral strategy in Africa
Executive summary Introduction An increasing number of African countries have placed restrictions on the export of raw minerals, attempting to develop the ability to process them…
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Remote Work As A Vector of Strategic Risk
Executive Summary North Korea’s covert deployment of fraudulent IT workers – operating under false identities, AI-generated personas, and complex proxy networks – has emerged as a…
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Inside the Cyberattacks on US Water Infrastructure
Executive Summary In July 2026, cyberattacks targeting water supply and wastewater operations systems in the United States (US) have illuminated persistent cyber vulnerabilities within the Critical…
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Iran as Leverage: How Allied Reluctance on Iran Is Reshaping US Security Commitments
Executive Summary On 16 August 2026, Trump announced a scale-down of the joint US-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, explicitly linking the decision to South…