Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Iran as Leverage: How Allied Reluctance on Iran Is Reshaping US Security Commitments
Executive Summary On 16 August 2026, Trump announced a scale-down of the joint US-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, explicitly linking the decision to South…
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Canada and the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP): Implications for the Canada-US Relationship?
Executive Summary In July 2026, Canada became the first observer state to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a multinational collaborative initiative led by the…
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The Berlin Pride terrorist Attack: How Europe remains vulnerable
Executive Summary On Saturday 25 July 2026, whilst Berlin was celebrating its Christopher Street Day (CSD) Pride festival, a car ploughed into the crowd near the…
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Germany Redeploys Ships Positioned for Hormuz Mission: Conditional Naval Commitments
Executive Summary On 23 July 2026, the German Ministry of Defence announced the redeployment of two naval vessels, the mine hunter Fulda and support vessel Mosel, from Djibouti, where…
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Looming Giant: China’s CXMT IPO Will Pressure Korean-led Memory Chip Ecosystem
Executive Summary When China’s state-backed chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) made its initial public offering (IPO) on July 27, it became China’s largest publicly traded company…
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Ukraine’s Patriot Plans: Viability Within Europe’s Wider Aim of Strategic Autonomy?
Executive Summary Ukraine’s ambition to secure domestic production of PAC-2/3 Patriot air defence interceptors has been seemingly hindered following President Trump’s public reneging on a pledge…
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The Main Ground Combat System: From Joint Platform to Platform-Independent Technology
Executive summary The Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) is a Franco-German programme to develop a next-generation replacement for the Leopard 2 and Leclerc main battle tanks…
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Estonia Ramps Up Baltic Drone and Defence Collaboration Amidst Tensions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Baltics have faced increased military activity throughout the summer of 2026, with tensions reaching their highest point over the week of August 17-21.…
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Cyberattacks Driven by Autonomous AI Agents: A Step Change in the Threat Landscape
Executive Summary In July 2026, two distinct incidents reignited the debate over the offensive capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) in cybersecurity. The first concerns Hugging Face,…
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Forced-Labor Tariffs vs. Forced Labor Sanctions
On July 24th, with global supply chains still absorbing the shocks of the conflict in Iran and the largest oil-supply disruption on record, the United States…
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Can the Philippines Compete for EU De-risking Investment? Lessons from Vietnam’s Regulatory Reforms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In a recent statement regarding the Trade Policy Review of the Philippines, delivered by Ambassador María Martin-Prat, the European Union (EU) acknowledged the Philippines’…
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Foreign Affairs Remains Andy Burnham’s Political Twilight Zone
Executive summary Britain has undergone a recent leadership change under the current Labour Party, having won a massive majority back in 2024, but Keir Starmer’s unpopular…