Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Belarus’s Forward Posture, Russia’s Strategic Direction
Introduction Belarus has not been a passive actor throughout the war in Ukraine, fueling Russia’s war of attrition from the sidelines. Within their recent joint exercises…
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Fortress Gotland: Securing the Baltic’s ‘Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier’
Historically, Sweden’s largest island, Gotland, has served as the most important strategic location in the Baltic Sea. For centuries, its value was defined by its ability…
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European Re-Union? The Renewal of the UK-EU Relationship
The world in which Britain left the European Union is no longer the world in which it finds itself. For almost a decade, the advantages and…
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The AES Paradox: Sovereignty at What Cost?
On April 25th 2026, the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks on several Malian cities: Bamako, Kati, Kidal,…
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The Northern Navies Plan: Why It is Being Pursued and Its Consequences
On the 29th April 2026, the First Sea Lord of the Royal Navy (RN), General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, unveiled the new Northern Navies plan at the…
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How the Russian Military is Recruiting Young African Men to Fight in Ukraine
Introduction As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian casualties are rapidly increasing. Since the start of the war in 2022, over 1.2 million…
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Can Hezbollah Destabilise Syria?
In recent weeks, the Syrian government has accused Hezbollah of operating within Syrian territory, including perpetrating targeted attacks on religious figures and planning attacks on Israel…
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Containing ISKP in a Post-Interventionist Era
Executive Summary Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded its operational reach beyond South Asia.…
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Europe’s Strongest Army by 2039? Germany’s New Military Strategy and Its Bet on the Bundeswehr
Executive Summary The new strategic documents of the German military unveiled in April 2026 represent the most important shift in national defense planning since the end…
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Moscow’s African Bargains Can Loosen
Since 2022, the dominant reading of Russia in the Sahel has been one of strategic entrenchment, with Moscow as the active party and the post-coup regimes…
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Digital Dependence: Can Scandinavian Cashless Convenience Lead to Strategic Vulnerability?
The Swedish payment settlements market has become almost fully digital, with most transactions being settled by card or using digital payment platforms. Sweden and Norway have…
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Africa Corps: Why the Rebrand Demands a Policy Rethink
In much Western policy and media analysis, the Wagner Group’s conversion into Africa Corps is framed as continuity under a new name, with many assuming the…