Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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ISIS in Syria and the Potential for Resurgence
With five reported attacks in July, and 67 since the beginning of 2026, some fear a resurgence of ISIS in Syria. Although 2026 has seen a…
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Strategic Importance and Selective Attention: How the Iran Conflict Has Overshadowed Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis
Introduction Since the outbreak of the civil war in Sudan in April 2023, the conflict has generated what many humanitarian organizations describe as an unprecedented humanitarian…
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Baghdad Raid Upsets Long-Standing Policy Principles
Executive Summary On 28 June, 2026, the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) raided the Green Zone area of Baghdad, which hosts many state institutions, including ministries, government…
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Neither Ripe nor Ready: Why has peace-making failed in Sudan?
INTRODUCTION April 2026 marks three years of war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (Amnesty International, 2026). Since…
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The EU’s Ban on Sudanese Gold Will Not Move the Needle
Executive Summary In July 2026 the European Union (EU) banned Sudanese gold imports and cyanide and mercury exports to weaken both factions of the Sudanese civil…
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How the Russian Military is Recruiting Young African Men to Fight in Ukraine
Introduction As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian casualties are rapidly increasing. Since the start of the war in 2022, over 1.2 million…
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A Permanent Seat Won’t Fix a Fractured House
During the Ministerial Meeting on the Reform of the UNSC held in Nairobi on March 11th, the AU Chairperson reaffirmed the African Union (AU) longstanding demand…
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Rethinking the Continuous Combat Function: Deficiencies and Implementations
Introduction In October 2015, The Intercept published the investigative report “The Drone Papers,” revealing the U.S. military’s drone program during the Obama administration, focusing on operations…
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Africa Corps: Why the Rebrand Demands a Policy Rethink
In much Western policy and media analysis, the Wagner Group’s conversion into Africa Corps is framed as continuity under a new name, with many assuming the…
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Somaliland’s Long Road from ‘De Facto’ to ‘De Jure’
Introduction In 1991, Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia. Since then, the breakaway region has constructed relatively stable and democratic institutions in contrast to Somalia, along…
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Controlling Key Exports Is No Longer Just A G2 Affair
Executive Summary Over the past few years, the US and China have both dramatically expanded the scope of their export control regimes to give their leaders…
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Russian Border Guards in the Sahara
Executive Summary Within the overlap of the Sahel and Sahara regions, the handling of the Libya-Sudan-Chad tri-border area shifted the Wagner Group’s arbitrariness, reliant on plausible…