Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Can the UAE Become An Independent Producer of Military Technology
Introduction The current volatile situation in the Gulf has forced the United Arab Emirates to enter into a direct conflict against Iran earlier this year (Malsin…
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Simandou and the Geoeconomic Reconfiguration of Iron Ore: Guinea, the New Sino-Australian Arbiter?
The growing importance of the Simandou mining corridor calls for a more nuanced assessment of a narrative that has become increasingly common in the Guinean press…
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JNIM-FLA tactical cooperation and state vulnerability in Mali
1. Executive Summary On 25 April 2026, JNIM and the FLA mounted a coordinated offensive across Mali, including attacks on Bamako, and killed Defence Minister Sadio…
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From Berlin to Abuja: Why Europe’s Next Supply Chain Runs through Africa
On July 21-22, 2026, the German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul visited Lagos, Nigeria, as part of his diplomatic journey across Africa, accompanying a trade delegation of…
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Denmark’s Gender-Integrated Conscription: A Progressive Blueprint as Europe Rearms
Executive Summary Denmark’s new conscription system began on 3 August 2026, when around 1,600 young people started 11 months of military service. The intake is the…
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Poland Refuses Nuclear Warheads On Its Territory: Why and How?
On the 16th of March in 1999, Jerzy Buzek, the then Prime Minister of Poland, stood next to the 19 NATO’s Allied flags flying side-by-side for…
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Targeting NATO’s Supply Lines: Russian Drone Sabotage at Leipzig/Halle Airport
Executive Summary On 4 August 2026, a drone carrying explosives struck a stationary cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Hours later, an unidentified flying object struck an…
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How Drones are Changing Hybrid Warfare in Germany
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Roughly a week after drones were spotted and thwarted at the Leipzig-Halle airport, a major center of logistics for European and American militaries as…
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Ireland’s Neutrality Dilemma
Introduction In August 2026, Irish Senator Michael McDowell described Ireland as ‘hopelessly undefended’. The Senator questioned, among other things, Ireland’s offensive drone capacity and the vulnerability…
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The Cheap Empire: how Russia turns Western withdrawal into strategic access in the Sahel
Executive Summary Russia does not capture Western mines; it inherits their vacancies. In December 2025, Niger’s state uranium company signed a cooperation agreement with Rosatom’s Uranium…
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Refuse the Terms, Not the Technology: Europe’s Palantir Procurement is Forfeiting Strategic Optionality
On 28 April 2026, Vice Admiral Thomas Daum, Inspector of the Bundeswehr’s Cyber and Information Domain Service, told Handelsblatt that Palantir software is “not being considered…
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Rallied around the authorities, ready to escalate. How Putin is using the result of the State Duma election
In brief: The official result of the State Duma election does not make it possible to determine reliably the actual scale of Russians’ support for individual political…