Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Belarus’s Forward Posture, Russia’s Strategic Direction
Introduction Belarus has not been a passive actor throughout the war in Ukraine, fueling Russia’s war of attrition from the sidelines. Within their recent joint exercises…
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Fortress Gotland: Securing the Baltic’s ‘Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier’
Historically, Sweden’s largest island, Gotland, has served as the most important strategic location in the Baltic Sea. For centuries, its value was defined by its ability…
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Neither Ripe nor Ready: Why has peace-making failed in Sudan?
INTRODUCTION April 2026 marks three years of war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (Amnesty International, 2026). Since…
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European Re-Union? The Renewal of the UK-EU Relationship
The world in which Britain left the European Union is no longer the world in which it finds itself. For almost a decade, the advantages and…
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The AES Paradox: Sovereignty at What Cost?
On April 25th 2026, the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks on several Malian cities: Bamako, Kati, Kidal,…
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Women, Life, Freedom: The Islamic Republic’s Struggle to Restore Its Symbolic Order
Executive Summary Recent protests and continued resistance to compulsory hijab suggest that the Islamic Republic faces a challenge extending beyond public order. Since 1979, the regime…
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The Northern Navies Plan: Why It is Being Pursued and Its Consequences
On the 29th April 2026, the First Sea Lord of the Royal Navy (RN), General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, unveiled the new Northern Navies plan at the…
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The EU’s Ban on Sudanese Gold Will Not Move the Needle
Executive Summary In July 2026 the European Union (EU) banned Sudanese gold imports and cyanide and mercury exports to weaken both factions of the Sudanese civil…
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The Fragile Critical Minerals Alliance: Why the G7 May Struggle to Break China’s Supply Chain Grip
Executive Summary This text analyzes the practical challenges of G7 cooperation to reduce dependence on critical minerals and permanent magnets supplied by non-G7 countries, especially China.…
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Can Hezbollah Destabilise Syria?
In recent weeks, the Syrian government has accused Hezbollah of operating within Syrian territory, including perpetrating targeted attacks on religious figures and planning attacks on Israel…
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Rebalancing the Information Order Through Strategic Hedging
Executive Summary The accelerating global contest for technological dominance, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), is prompting a new wave of digital sovereignty initiatives among middle powers…
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Containing ISKP in a Post-Interventionist Era
Executive Summary Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded its operational reach beyond South Asia.…