Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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A Strategic View on the EU’s FTA With Mercosur
After decades in the making, the European Union and Mercosur signed a free trade agreement in Asunción, Paraguay on January 17, 2026. If the deal is…
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Romania and Black Sea Maritime Security: Assessing Bucharest’s Case to Host the EU Hub
In his first major foreign policy speech Romanian President Nicusor Dan outlined a new national objective: becoming the host nation of the EU Black Sea Maritime…
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Elections as a Tool for Military Rule in Myanmar
Executive Summary Elections have been scarce in Burmese history, but they have been a symbol of hope and political reform. Following almost fifty years of brutal…
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Second AES Summit: Assessing the Alliance Two Years After Its Formation
On 22 and 23 December 2025, the second summit of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) took place in the Malian capital Bamako. In this…
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Second AES Summit: Assessing the Alliance Two Years After its Formation
On 22 and 23 December 2025, the second summit of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) took place in the Malian capital Bamako. In this…
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The Fall of Nicolás Maduro and the Fall of Putin’s Imperialism
The US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro to bring him to trial on criminal charges have far-reaching implications for international politics. One…
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The Israel-Egypt Gas Deal: Energy Cooperation and Political Risk
Executive Summary The 15-year natural gas export agreement between Israel and Egypt, which has been recently renewed marking a $34-35 billion deal, has become far more…
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Towards a new European China strategy: Realise opportunities. Reduce dependencies. Resist threats
Written by Dr Andreas Fulda Both the EU’s trifecta (“The EU sees China as a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival”) and…
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China’s Rare-Earth Export Squeeze and Europe’s Industrial Vulnerability
Executive Summary Rare-earth elements (REEs) constitute immense necessities for powering facets of modern technology such as EV motors, permanent magnets in the defence sector, and many…
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Blood Gold: The UAE and the Transnational Networks Driving Sudan’s War Economy
Executive Summary The fall of El Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in late October 2025 marked yet another pivotal moment in Sudan’s war. The…
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The New Great Game: Crafting a Western Strategy for the Caucasus and Central Asia
Executive Summary The term “soft underbelly” has been used to describe the Soviet Union and, more recently, Russia’s potential weaknesses on its southern flank. This region…
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The New Space Race: India’s Efforts in China’s Shadow
Executive Summary India launched its Naval communications satellite CMS-03 aboard its homegrown LVM3 rocket successfully on 2nd November. It is also set to launch the third…