Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Hezbollah’s Disarmament: Potential impacts on the wider Levant and Lebanon’s security
Executive Summary The Lebanese government’s current plan for the disarmament emerges from the aftermath of the 2023 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. This conflict and the…
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AI Agents and Entry-Level Work
Executive Summary The latest data from Yale’s Budget Lab and Brookings (Oct 1-2, 2025) shows no major AI-related job losses yet. But beneath that stability lies…
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India’s Independent Foreign Policy Shifts from 2018 to 2025
5 Oct 2025 As the first long-form publication emerging from a CISES working group, this white paper represents a significant step forward in our mission to…
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The End of Pacifism? Japan Rebuilds for Conflict
Executive Summary Anchored historically by its post-WWII pacifist constitution, particularly Article 9, Japan has long avoided projecting significant military power abroad. Historically, the nation has capped…
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Conceptualizing a Global Conflagration that Remains Below the Threshold of War
The 2020 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have, in some circles, been viewed as signalling the end of hybrid and unconventional warfare.…
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Can American Manufacturing Swing the Way Trump Wants It To?
With Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs declared on 2nd April and then paused for 90 days a week later, countries are negotiating trade deals with the US,…
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The Geopolitical Implications of Bangladesh’s Relationship with China
Bangladesh has been deepening its political ties with China following the ousting of its former prime minister last year, shifting the geopolitical dynamic of South Asia.…
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The Price of Isolation: Trump’s Paris Climate Agreement Withdrawal
Trump’s protectionist and isolationist agenda has spawned a global trade war, fractured long standing alliances, caused security unrest, and led to the U.S.’s reversal of its…
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The EU’s 16th Sanctions Package on Russia: a Mixed Record
The 16th European Commission sanctions package represents progress but remains insufficient in fully restricting Russia’s ability to evade economic penalties. While expanding restrictions on shadow fleet…
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The withdrawal of French military forces from Africa
“Ingratitude”: this is the term used by President Emmanuel Macron on January 6th, during the annual conference of ambassadors. The leaders of the countries where French…
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German Defence Spending Increase
Executive Summary After his victory in the German National Elections, Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz expressed strong support for increased European defence integration, particularly in light of Trump’s…
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Significance of Containing Chinese Influence in Eurasia
Recent developments under the new Trump administration have unsettled the transatlantic community, but they should be seen as a continuation of a US Grand Strategic shift…