Research & Analysis
Independent research on security, geopolitical competition, economic statecraft and emerging technologies. Explore our publications by subject, programme, region or contributor.
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Africa Corps: Why the Rebrand Demands a Policy Rethink
In much Western policy and media analysis, the Wagner Group’s conversion into Africa Corps is framed as continuity under a new name, with many assuming the…
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Somaliland’s Long Road from ‘De Facto’ to ‘De Jure’
Introduction In 1991, Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia. Since then, the breakaway region has constructed relatively stable and democratic institutions in contrast to Somalia, along…
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Russian Border Guards in the Sahara
Executive Summary Within the overlap of the Sahel and Sahara regions, the handling of the Libya-Sudan-Chad tri-border area shifted the Wagner Group’s arbitrariness, reliant on plausible…
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The Weaponization of the Dollar: Can BRICS build a credible alternative?
Since the end of World War II, the American dollar has become the most important global currency, occupying a 57.8 % share of worldwide central bank…
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Regional Destabilisation and Proxy Interests in Sudan’s Fourth Year of War
Executive Summary Since starting in 2023, Sudan’s civil war has transformed from an internal fight for dominance to a complex proxy war supported by conflicting outside…
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The New Ways of Dispute Resolution: The UN Security Council in 2026
The UN Security Council (UNSC) is the primary UN organ responsible for maintaining international peace and security under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. However, recent…
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Here’s What a Weak Iran Could Mean for the World
The conflict between Iran and a joint US-Israeli force enters its third week and shows no indication of de-escalation. Actors in the conflict have targeted economic,…
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Germany’s Missing Warship – How the F126 Became a Strategic Liability and Ways out of the Crises
Executive Summary The German F126 frigate program, supposed to serve as the foundation of Germany’s naval combat capabilities in the future, is beset by major setbacks,…
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Who Will Guarantee Europe’s Security?
Decades of reliance on the transatlantic alliance have shaped Europe’s security thinking around the United States. The start of Donald Trump’s second administration has brought obvious…
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Russia and the Protests in Iran: What Outcome Is Putin Really Interested In?
Western reporting on the protests in Iran has been dominated by outrage at the brutality of the authorities, who – not for the first time –…
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The Israel-Egypt Gas Deal: Energy Cooperation and Political Risk
Executive Summary The 15-year natural gas export agreement between Israel and Egypt, which has been recently renewed marking a $34-35 billion deal, has become far more…
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Prospects for the Second Partition: The West Sudanese State in the Making
Written by Michal Hunicz Ongoing since 2023, the Third Sudanese Civil War has shown no sign of nearing conclusion. What began as a power struggle between…